PT KONTAK PERKASA FUTURES BALI 19/07/2019 – Harga minyak kelapa sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) kembali melemah untuk hari kedua akibat tertekan harga minyak kedelai. Kondisi fundamental yang masih lemah membuat pergerakan harga minyak sawit rentan dipengaruhi komoditas lain.
Pada perdagangan hari Jumat (19/7/2019) pukul 11:00 WIB, harga CPO kontrak pengiriman September di Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMDEX) melemah0,15% menjadi MYR 1.980/ton (US$ 481,77/ton). Sehari sebelumnya, harga CPO juga terkoreksi 0,25%.Kondisi cuaca di Amerika Serikat (AS) yang semakin baik menimbulkan ekspektasi peningkatan produksi tanaman pertanian, termasuk minyak kedelai. Setidaknya untuk jangka pendek.
Peningkatan produksi tentu akan berdampak pada keseimbangan fundamental (pasokan-permintaan). Sesuai hukum ekonomi, kala pasokan naik, maka harga akan menyesuaikan pada level permintaan tetap.
Alhasil pada penutupan sesi perdagangan Kamis (18/7/2019) harga minyak kedelai kontrak pengiriman September melemah 0,18% dan merupakan koreksi hari ketiga secara beruntun.Pergerakan harga minyak kedelai memberikan pengaruh searah pada CPO. Sebab, dua produk tersebut merupakan substitusi yang saling bersaing di pasar minyak nabati global.
Kala harga minyak kedelai melemah, harga CPO juga mendapat tekanan.
Sayangnya, kondisi fundamental di pasar CPO sendiri juga sedang tidak kuat, sehingga rentan terhadap tekanan kedelai.
Posisi stok minyak sawit di Malaysia per akhir bulan Juni masih sebesar 2,43 juta ton atau lebih tinggi 10% dibanding tahun sebelumnya sebesar 2,2 juta ton.
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Terlebih, volume ekspor minyak sawit Malaysia pada bulan Juni juga anjlok hingga 19,4% dibanding bulan sebelumnya (month-on-month/MoM). Penurunan ekspor merupakan salah satu sinyal lemahnya permintaan dari berbagai industri.
Saat ini, minyak sawit bayak digunakan pada industri makanan. minuman, farmasi, hingga bahan bakar minyak (BBM).
Stok yang berlimpah dibarengi dengan penurunan permintaan tentu saja bukan kondisi yang bagus. Keseimbangan akan berat ke sisi pasokan. Mau tidak mau harga harus turun untuk menyeimbangkan.
Smber : cnbcnews
1 Comment
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